boc/iom/decision_support/autonomous_recommendations.py

"""
Autonomous Recommendations
AI generates action plans automatically
"""

from typing import Dict, List, Optional, Tuple
from dataclasses import dataclass
from datetime import datetime


@dataclass
class ActionPlan:
    """An autonomous action plan"""
    plan_id: str
    target_goal: str
    budget_usd: float
    actions: List[Dict]
    expected_outcome: Dict
    confidence: float
    timeline_months: int
    
    def to_dict(self) -> Dict:
        return {
            "plan_id": self.plan_id,
            "target_goal": self.target_goal,
            "budget_usd": self.budget_usd,
            "actions": self.actions,
            "expected_outcome": self.expected_outcome,
            "confidence": round(self.confidence, 2),
            "timeline_months": self.timeline_months
        }


class AutonomousRecommendationEngine:
    """Generates autonomous action plans"""
    
    def __init__(self):
        self.action_library = self._load_action_library()
    
    def _load_action_library(self) -> Dict:
        """Load available actions and their effects"""
        return {
            "replace_lighting": {
                "name": "Replace street lighting with LED",
                "cost_per_unit": 5000,
                "typical_units": 100,
                "effects": {
                    "safety_index": +15,
                    "night_activity": +20,
                    "energy_efficiency": +25
                },
                "timeline_months": 4
            },
            "repair_sidewalks": {
                "name": "Repair damaged sidewalks",
                "cost_per_unit": 2000,
                "typical_units": 50,
                "effects": {
                    "walkability": +20,
                    "safety_index": +10,
                    "accessibility": +15
                },
                "timeline_months": 3
            },
            "plant_trees": {
                "name": "Plant trees along streets",
                "cost_per_unit": 500,
                "typical_units": 40,
                "effects": {
                    "shade_index": +25,
                    "heat_stress": -15,
                    "walkability": +10,
                    "property_value": +5
                },
                "timeline_months": 12
            },
            "remove_graffiti": {
                "name": "Remove graffiti and paint walls",
                "cost_per_unit": 1000,
                "typical_units": 20,
                "effects": {
                    "visual_maintenance": +30,
                    "safety_index": +8,
                    "property_value": +3
                },
                "timeline_months": 1
            },
            "add_bike_lanes": {
                "name": "Add dedicated bike lanes",
                "cost_per_unit": 15000,
                "typical_units": 10,
                "effects": {
                    "bicycle_friendliness": +40,
                    "walkability": +10,
                    "traffic_intensity": -5
                },
                "timeline_months": 6
            },
            "improve_crossings": {
                "name": "Improve pedestrian crossings",
                "cost_per_unit": 3000,
                "typical_units": 15,
                "effects": {
                    "walkability": +15,
                    "safety_index": +12,
                    "accessibility": +10
                },
                "timeline_months": 2
            }
        }
    
    def generate_plan(
        self,
        target_goal: str,
        current_state: Dict[str, float],
        budget_usd: float,
        constraints: Optional[Dict] = None
    ) -> ActionPlan:
        """
        Generate autonomous action plan
        
        Example:
        "Increase safety by 15% within 25M SEK budget"
        """
        
        # Parse goal
        target_metric, target_improvement = self._parse_goal(target_goal)
        
        # Select best actions
        selected_actions = self._select_actions(
            target_metric, target_improvement, current_state, budget_usd
        )
        
        # Calculate expected outcome
        expected_outcome = self._calculate_outcome(current_state, selected_actions)
        
        # Calculate confidence
        confidence = self._calculate_confidence(selected_actions, target_improvement)
        
        # Calculate timeline
        timeline = max(a["timeline_months"] for a in selected_actions) if selected_actions else 12
        
        return ActionPlan(
            plan_id=f"PLAN-{datetime.utcnow().strftime('%Y%m%d-%H%M%S')}",
            target_goal=target_goal,
            budget_usd=budget_usd,
            actions=selected_actions,
            expected_outcome=expected_outcome,
            confidence=confidence,
            timeline_months=timeline
        )
    
    def _parse_goal(self, goal: str) -> Tuple[str, float]:
        """Parse goal string"""
        # Simple parsing
        if "safety" in goal.lower():
            return "safety_index", 15
        elif "family" in goal.lower():
            return "family_friendly", 12
        elif "walk" in goal.lower():
            return "walkability", 20
        elif "green" in goal.lower():
            return "greenery", 25
        else:
            return "safety_index", 15
    
    def _select_actions(
        self,
        target_metric: str,
        target_improvement: float,
        current_state: Dict[str, float],
        budget_usd: float
    ) -> List[Dict]:
        """Select best actions to achieve goal"""
        
        candidates = []
        
        for action_id, action in self.action_library.items():
            # Calculate effect on target metric
            effect = action["effects"].get(target_metric, 0)
            
            if effect > 0:
                cost = action["cost_per_unit"] * action["typical_units"]
                efficiency = effect / max(cost / 100000, 1)
                
                candidates.append({
                    "action_id": action_id,
                    "name": action["name"],
                    "cost": cost,
                    "effect": effect,
                    "efficiency": efficiency,
                    "timeline_months": action["timeline_months"],
                    "units": action["typical_units"]
                })
        
        # Sort by efficiency
        candidates.sort(key=lambda x: x["efficiency"], reverse=True)
        
        # Select actions within budget
        selected = []
        total_cost = 0
        total_effect = 0
        
        for candidate in candidates:
            if total_cost + candidate["cost"] <= budget_usd and total_effect < target_improvement:
                selected.append(candidate)
                total_cost += candidate["cost"]
                total_effect += candidate["effect"]
        
        return selected
    
    def _calculate_outcome(
        self,
        current_state: Dict[str, float],
        actions: List[Dict]
    ) -> Dict:
        """Calculate expected outcome"""
        
        outcome = current_state.copy()
        
        for action in actions:
            action_id = action["action_id"]
            action_def = self.action_library.get(action_id, {})
            
            for metric, effect in action_def.get("effects", {}).items():
                if metric in outcome:
                    outcome[metric] = min(100, outcome[metric] + effect)
        
        return {k: round(v, 1) for k, v in outcome.items()}
    
    def _calculate_confidence(self, actions: List[Dict], target: float) -> float:
        """Calculate confidence in plan"""
        if not actions:
            return 0
        
        # More actions = higher confidence
        action_confidence = min(0.9, len(actions) / 5)
        
        # Higher total effect = higher confidence
        total_effect = sum(a["effect"] for a in actions)
        effect_confidence = min(0.9, total_effect / target) if target > 0 else 0.5
        
        return (action_confidence + effect_confidence) / 2
    
    def optimize_budget(
        self,
        target_goal: str,
        current_state: Dict[str, float],
        budget_range: List[float]
    ) -> List[Dict]:
        """
        Compare plans at different budget levels
        
        Returns:
            List of plans with different budgets
        """
        plans = []
        
        for budget in budget_range:
            plan = self.generate_plan(target_goal, current_state, budget)
            
            plans.append({
                "budget": budget,
                "actions_count": len(plan.actions),
                "expected_improvement": self._get_improvement(current_state, plan.expected_outcome),
                "confidence": plan.confidence,
                "timeline_months": plan.timeline_months,
                "cost_per_improvement": budget / max(self._get_improvement(current_state, plan.expected_outcome), 1)
            })
        
        return plans
    
    def _get_improvement(
        self,
        baseline: Dict[str, float],
        outcome: Dict[str, float]
    ) -> float:
        """Calculate total improvement"""
        improvements = []
        
        for metric, baseline_value in baseline.items():
            if metric in outcome:
                improvement = outcome[metric] - baseline_value
                improvements.append(improvement)
        
        return sum(improvements) / len(improvements) if improvements else 0


# Example usage
def example_autonomous_plan():
    """Example: Generate autonomous action plan"""
    engine = AutonomousRecommendationEngine()
    
    # Current state
    current_state = {
        "safety_index": 45,
        "walkability": 60,
        "night_activity": 35,
        "energy_efficiency": 40,
        "greenery": 25,
        "heat_stress": 80,
        "visual_maintenance": 30,
        "bicycle_friendliness": 30,
        "accessibility": 50
    }
    
    # Generate plan
    print("=== Autonomous Action Plan ===")
    plan = engine.generate_plan(
        target_goal="Increase safety by 15%",
        current_state=current_state,
        budget_usd=25000000  # 25M SEK ≈ 2.5M USD
    )
    
    print(f"Plan ID: {plan.plan_id}")
    print(f"Goal: {plan.target_goal}")
    print(f"Budget: ${plan.budget_usd:,}")
    print(f"Timeline: {plan.timeline_months} months")
    print(f"Confidence: {plan.confidence}")
    
    print("\nActions:")
    for i, action in enumerate(plan.actions, 1):
        print(f"  {i}. {action['name']}")
        print(f"     Cost: ${action['cost']:,}")
        print(f"     Effect: +{action['effect']} safety")
        print(f"     Timeline: {action['timeline_months']} months")
    
    print("\nExpected Outcome:")
    for metric, value in plan.expected_outcome.items():
        old_value = current_state.get(metric, 0)
        if value != old_value:
            print(f"  {metric}: {old_value} → {value} ({value - old_value:+.1f})")
    
    # Budget optimization
    print("\n=== Budget Optimization ===")
    budgets = [1000000, 2500000, 5000000, 10000000]
    comparisons = engine.optimize_budget("Increase safety", current_state, budgets)
    
    print("Budget | Actions | Improvement | Confidence | Cost/Eff")
    print("-" * 60)
    for comp in comparisons:
        print(f"${comp['budget']:>8,} | {comp['actions_count']:>7} | {comp['expected_improvement']:>11.1f} | {comp['confidence']:>10.2f} | ${comp['cost_per_improvement']:>7.0f}")
    
    return plan


if __name__ == '__main__':
    example_autonomous_plan()